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 Expert  716867

Expert in Operations Consulting and Specialized Software for Forecasting, "Smarter" Inventories, Fluctuations


Available for your Consulting and Expert Witness Needs

California (CA)
USA
Education Work History Career AccomplishmentsPublicationsConsulting Services Expert Witness

Summary of Expertise:

Listed with other top experts in: 

RETAIL FORECASTING; Expert has 25 years of experience developing forecasting techniques that support specialized optimization systems for apparel manufacturing, including material utilization, inventory management, retailers' orders, and store-level and aggregate retail sales. These problems involve non-symmetric processes, "noisy" store-level demand, dominant customer, and results-to-date analysis (similar to election-night analysis). The approach uses multiple sources of information and analyzes details and fluctuations rather than just using totals or averages; it emphasizes clean input data plus as much knowledge as possible about structure and pattern in the data before choosing methods to deal with the remaining uncertainty. This principle applies to new techniques like neural nets and fuzzy logic as well as more conventional mathematics.
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retail forecasting

Expert has 20 years of experience developing specialized optimization systems (incorporating specialized forecasting) for high-dollar-impact business processes where textbook answers are inadequate. His firm has developed software for large apparel manufacturers for material utilization, inventory management, orders from retailers, and store-level and aggregate retail sales. Their dynamic model stock management software recommends sizes, colors, or quantities of garments for each individual store. These systems give the effect of a "smart" or expert system, but are based on mathematical analysis rather than AI techniques. The PC-based software is in ANSI C and uses Paradox(R)-format databases, but is designed for easy adaptation to different databases (UNIX, etc.)
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inventory control

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inventory control system

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retail automation

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supply chain management

Expert has 25 years experience developing specialized optimization systems (incorporating specialized forecasting) for large apparel manufacturers, including material utilization, inventory management, dynamic model stock management, analysis or forecasting of orders from retailers, and store-level and aggregate retail sales. Users get the effect of a "smart" or expert system, but the logic is based on mathematical analysis rather than AI techniques. These systems deal with high-dollar-impact problems that don't have simple textbook solutions. Unlike linear programs, the bottom line for cut-order planning is not smooth. He has often found marker efficiency variation is not symmetric; it is easier to make a marker a lot worse than even a little better. Blips or "outliers" in sales for a stock keeping unit (SKU) can have a long aftereffect on moving averages or smoothing results.
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operations research

Expert has 15 years of experience developing specialized optimization systems for large apparel manufacturers for inventory management based on analysis/forecasting of retailers' orders, and store-level and aggregate retail sales. "Need-to-make" analysis is based on comfort levels derived from fluctuation analysis. Intelligent Rounding(R) software plans production orders for garments so that the required quantity by size closely satisfies inventory requirements in a way that is compatible with making good cutting layouts and with efficient cutting and manufacturing. Dynamic model stock management software recommends sizes, colors, or quantities of garments for each individual store.
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inventory management

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inventory model

With his experience helping clients (typically apparel manufacturers) master interdisciplinary high-dollar-impact business processes, Expert has developed specialized optimization systems based on mathematical modelling of the process. Every time he has done a detailed study for a client, he has found surprises in the data that neither he nor the client expected, yet is significant for the project outcome. His firm therefore warns against defining and structuring a problem prematurely.
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mathematical model

Expert has 25 years experience helping clients master interdisciplinary business processes that cross organizational lines. For example, analyzing, tracking, or forecasting orders and sales is an "intelligence" function that needs to integrate data from multiple sources throughout the company. Typically, responsibilities, ownership of data sources, and reporting relationships are fragmented, to the great frustration of user departments. Expert has found cases where business process re-engineering can be painless, not requiring radical changes in organization structure, but simply making operating procedures and systems smarter. His firm's cut order planning software relies on Intelligent Rounding(R) software upstream to satisfy inventory requirements while allowing good cutting layouts and efficient cutting and manufacturing.
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business process re-engineering

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re-engineering

APPAREL INDUSTRY. Expert led Systems Research at Levi Strauss & Co. for 12 years before establishing an independent business in 1985 to provide technical consulting and specialized number-crunching software. His clients have been major apparel firms including Levi Strauss & Co. and Haggar Apparel Co.

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clothing industry

APPAREL PRODUCT RETAILING. Expert's firm has analyzed retailers' ordering and sales patterns for pants and other garments and has developed specialized analysis and forecasting techniques including season-to-date monitoring or assessment similar to election night analysis. The firm's dynamic model stock management software recommends sizes, colors, or quantities of garments for each individual store.

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apparel product retailing


Show Secondary and Basic Areas of Expertise
Localities:
Expert may consult nationally and internationally, and is also local to the following cities: San Jose, California;  San Francisco, California;  Sacramento, California;  Oakland, California;  Stockton, California;  Fremont, California;  Modesto, California;  Salinas, California;  Santa Rosa, California;  and Hayward, California.

Education:
Year   Degree   Subject   Institution  
1970   PhD   Applied Physics   Harvard University  
1963   MA   Applied Physics   Harvard University  
1961   BEP   Engineering Physics   Cornell University  

Work History:
Years   Employer   Title  

1988 to

 

(Undisclosed)

 

President and Founder

 

1985 to 1988

 


 

Independent Consultant

 

1973 to 1985

 

Levi Strauss & Co .

 

Systems Research

 

Career Accomplishments:
Associations/Societies

Expert is a member of IEEE, the American Physical Society, and the Professional and Technical Consultants Association (PATCA).


Publications:
Selected Publications and Publishers  
 - Bobbin Magazine  

Consulting Services:
Click the green button above to contact Expert for a free initial screening call regarding your expert consulting needs.  Expert is available for consulting to corporate, legal and government clients.  Remember, your initial screening call to speak with Expert is free.

Expert Witness:
Click the green button above to contact Expert for a free initial screening call regarding expert testimony, litigation consulting and support, forensic services, or any related expert witness services.  A few litigation needs include product liability, personal injury, economic loss, intellectual property (patent, trademark, trade secret, copyright), and insurance matters.  Remember, your initial screening call to speak with Expert is free.

International Experience:
Summary
He has evaluated CAD/CAM and mathematical optimization system opportunities in Canada, Australia, and throughout Europe.

Language Skills:
Foreign Language  
French  
German  

Additional Skills and Services:
Other Skills and Services

He did monthly reviews of business-related books for the PATCA from 1991 to 1995. The cut-order planning (forecasting/optimization) system developed at Levi Strauss & Co. under Expert's leadership at Levi Strauss was the most advanced in the industry for 15 years (since 1976) until his firm released its completely new software in 1991.


 

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