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 Expert  726259

Expert in Time Series Analysis, Market Response, Market Mix, Market Segmentation, Survival Analysis


Available for your Consulting and Expert Witness Needs

Illinois (IL)
USA
Education Work HistoryPublicationsConsulting Services Expert Witness Market Research

Summary of Expertise:

Listed with other top experts in: 

Expert has developed and tested numerous forecasting methods to pick the best forecasting models for his clients. He has used some of the most advanced statistical models to significantly improve forecast accuracy. A significant part of his research has involved the detection of market trends. The class of forecasting models considered are ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), ESM (Exponential Smoothing Models: triple exponential models), and SLR (Seasonal Regression Models).

He has used his extensive and advanced econometric/statistical training to develop forecasting models that have brought his clients significant accuracy in their estimation of program impacts and forecast capabilities. He has over twenty years of quantitative research and consulting experience in this area. Some of his cutting edge research results have been published in prestigious economic/industry journals such as Review of Economics and Statistics or Resource and Energy Economics Journal.

Expert has conducted extensive market segmentation based on analysis of survey responses. His market segmentation work has been based on developing cluster analysis and discriminant analysis methodology to determine the factors associated with customers' preferences.

Expert has used his advanced applied statistics training to help his clients in the CPG, financial, and energy industries. He has over 20 years of experience in statistical modeling, time series forecasting, survival, and demand analysis. He has successfully demonstrated his ability to identify problems, analyze needs, and develop strategies to solve problems. Additional experience includes award-winning instruction of econometrics, and statistics courses at the University of Wisconsin – Madison. Some of his cutting edge research results have been published in prestigious quantitative/industry journals such as Review of Economics and Statistics or Resource and Energy Economics Journal.

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accuracy

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forecasting

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applied statistics

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statistics

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curve fitting

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customer segmentation

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market segmentation

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econometric model

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econometrics

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estimate

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economic analysis

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economics

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market trend

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trend forecasting

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marketing mix

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survey statistics


Show Secondary and Basic Areas of Expertise
Localities:
Expert may consult nationally and internationally, and is also local to the following cities: Chicago, Illinois;  Rockford, Illinois;  Aurora, Illinois;  Naperville, Illinois;  Peoria, Illinois;  Joliet, Illinois;  Elgin, Illinois;  South Bend, Indiana;  Gary, Indiana;  and Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Education:
Year   Degree   Subject   Institution  
1981   PhD   Economics (Econometrics)   University of Wisconsin-Madison  
  MS   Econometrics   London School of Economics  
  BS   Economics   London School of Economics  

Work History:
Years   Employer   Department   Title   Responsibilities

2007 to 2009

 

Quantitative Risk Management

 


 

Senior Behavioral Researcher

 

He develops deposit models, rate models, prepayment/default models, and loan runoff models

2004 to 2007

 

PepsiCO

 

Demand Planning

 

Model Design Manager/Senior Statistical Lead

 

Worked as the statistical team lead, responsible for developing the statistical methodology to improve forecast accuracy across various company product lines, as well as conducting market response and market mix analysis.

1988 to 2004

 

Christensen Associates

 


 

Senior Economist

 

Conducted energy and pricing studies using various statistical and econometric techniques. Major research projects included: • Customer Response to Marginal Cost Based Hourly Prices. Conducted first-of-its-kind econometric analysis to compare customer behavior under real-time pricing with that of a pre-selected control group. • ITime-Of-Use Study. Designed numerous voluntary TOU programs. Estimated load impacts and designed and implemented customer surveys to explore potential differences between participants and non-participants. • Market Segmentation Based on Analysis of Survey Responses. Developed cluster analysis and discriminant analysis methodology to determine the factors associated with customers' preferences for certain consumer products. • Price Forecasting. Using the latest theoretical developments in time series forecasting, developed methodology to improve wholesale electricity price forecasts. • Sample Design and Statistical Analysis for Various Studies. • Litigation Research. Designed numerous samples and analyzed results to assist attorneys in developing defenses for equal employment and anti-trust cases.

1998 to 2004

 

University of Wisconsin-Madison

 

Economics

 

Visiting Assistant Professor/Lecturer

 

Taught courses in Econometrics, Statistics, and Economics


Publications:
Selected Publications and Publishers  
 - Resource and Energy Economics  
 - The Review of Economics and Statistics  
 - International Energy Program Evaluation Conference Proceedings  
 - Innovative Electricity Pricing Conference Proceedings  

Consulting Services:
Selected Consulting Examples:
  • Customer Response to Marginal Cost Based Hourly Prices. Conducted first-of-its-kind econometric analysis to compare customer behavior under real-time pricing with that of a pre-selected control group. Client: Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation
  • Incorporation of Real Time Price Customer Response into System Operations and Day-Ahead Price Forecasting. Developed the methodology, simulated multiple price scenarios, and determined the optimal price for the following day. Client: Georgia Power
  • Time-Of-Use Study. Designed numerous voluntary TOU programs. Estimated load impacts and designed and implemented customer surveys to explore potential differences between participants and non-participants. Analysis of results led to approval of new rate programs by the regulatory commissions. Supervised up to 10 colleagues for different stages of these projects. Client: Midwest Power Corporation
  • Market Segmentation Based on Analysis of Survey Responses. Developed cluster analysis and discriminant analysis methodology to determine the factors associated with customers' preferences for certain consumer products.
  • Sample Design and Statistical Analysis for Various Studies. Developed experimental designs and significantly improved existing sampling methodologies that increase efficiencies and cut sampling costs while improving precision and reliability of results. Analyzed the survey responses using the collected survey data. Client: USPS
Recent Client Requests:
  • Expert in modeling on-peak KWH consumption using a static meter.
Click the green button above to contact Expert for a free initial screening call regarding your expert consulting needs.  Expert is available for consulting to corporate, legal and government clients.  Remember, your initial screening call to speak with Expert is free.

Expert Witness:
Expert Witness Experience Summary:
Designed numerous samples and analyzed results to assist attorneys in developing defenses for equal employment and anti-trust cases.
Click the green button above to contact Expert for a free initial screening call regarding expert testimony, litigation consulting and support, forensic services, or any related expert witness services.  A few litigation needs include product liability, personal injury, economic loss, intellectual property (patent, trademark, trade secret, copyright), and insurance matters.  Remember, your initial screening call to speak with Expert is free.

Language Skills:
Foreign Language   Description
Persian (Farsi)   Mother language. Very proficient.

Market Research:
• Market response and mix analysis for CPG industry • Rate and demand analysis for energy industry • Market segmentation analysis for marketing industry • Deposit and prepayment/default modeling for financial institutions

Click the green button above to contact Expert for a free initial screening call regarding your marketing research, industry research, and company research needs.  For research needs involving multiple experts or secondary research, a Research Director can be assigned to coordinate the work into a custom report for you as a potentially quicker and more cost effective alternative to doing this work yourself or hiring a boutique consultancy.  Remember, your initial screening call to speak with Expert is free.

Additional Skills and Services:
Training/Seminars

"Deposit Forecasting", 2007 Quantitative Risk Management BSM Conference

“Incorporating Load Response into Utility Operations and Planning,” 1995 International Energy Program Evaluation Conference

“Customer Response to Voluntary Time-of-Use Electricity Rates: New Evidence from a Controlled Experiment,” 1994 Innovative Electricity Pricing Conference

Other Skills and Services

• Excellent communication skills • Proven ability to identify problems, analyze needs, and develop strategies to solve problems • Statistical model development and implementation of original research to supply information to business decision makers • Preparation and presentation of research results and recommendations to clients. • Total Factor Productivity measurement: Index number analysis and econometric estimation


 

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